One step to peace in the Middle East and an uprising in Iran

Op-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.

The activation of the “Snapback” mechanism in Iran could mark a major step toward establishing peace and stability in the Middle East. This mechanism serves as a turning point to curb the geopolitical war machine of the Islamic Republic. With the reinstatement of six UN Security Council resolutions, comprehensive sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program, missile and military technologies, as well as financial transactions, will once again come into force—measures that could paralyze the regime’s war machinery.
Most importantly, it closes the door on further appeasement with the West and places the regime in a tighter international stranglehold.

Moreover, the full return of sanctions from the 2006–2010 period would deepen Iran’s economic crisis. A society already on the brink of explosion—after years of executions, massacres, systemic looting, and corruption—could see in the activation of “Snapback” a historic opportunity for a final uprising.

For this reason, thousands of Iranians in the diaspora demonstrated in the United States on September 23, and tens of thousands more rallied in Brussels on September 6, calling for the activation of the Snapback mechanism. They believe that enforcing this measure would not only curb the regime’s regional warmongering but also accelerate the pace of uprisings inside Iran.

Snapback and the Dark Outlook for Growth

According to Iran’s Statistical Center, the annual inflation rate in Shahrivar 1404 (August 23 – September 22) reached 37.5 percent— a sharp increase compared to previous months, doubling the pressure on households. Not only is there no prospect of resolving this crisis, but the situation is steadily worsening.

Following the activation of Snapback, the Iranian Chamber of Commerce published a report titled “The Economic Impacts of the Return of UN Security Council Sanctions.” The report outlined three scenarios for Iran’s economy through the end of 2025: optimistic, likely, and pessimistic. Alarmingly, all three scenarios predict negative economic growth. In the worst-case scenario, the exchange rate could reach 165,000 tomans per dollar and inflation could surge to 90 percent—a scenario deemed the most probable given the current political climate.

After the report’s publication, domestic sources reported that on August 28, IRGC intelligence forces raided the Chamber of Commerce building and interrogated members of its International Affairs department.

On September 28 and 29, Iran’s streets once again witnessed massive protests from various social groups against poverty, plunder, and repression by the ruling regime. On October 7, steel workers in Ahvaz took to the streets to protest appalling living conditions, while retired telecom workers staged nationwide demonstrations across dozens of cities.

On October 6, only hours after the activation of Snapback, the regime’s parliament held a closed-door session. Afterward, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf admitted: “The closed session of parliament was about serious livelihood issues and the critical challenges facing the people.”

“Psychological Security of Society”

The return of Snapback has shifted the balance of power inside Iran in favor of the people and their protests. For this reason, regime officials have repeatedly threatened those they accuse of “undermining the psychological security of society.”

Azizi, a regime-affiliated expert, admitted on October 6: “Some deliberately make statements about Snapback to worry the people and put pressure on the system.”

Facing a deadlock, the Iranian regime has turned exclusively to threats and intimidation. On September 27, the judiciary announced: “Legal cases will be opened against those who disrupt the psychological security of society following the announcement of the illegal implementation of Snapback, and offenders will be dealt with.” Likewise, on October 6, the deputy head of the judiciary warned: “We will take action against those who disrupt the psychological security of society.”

Jalalipour, another regime-linked analyst, wrote on the Jamaran website on October 7: “Some believe that the government is increasingly unable to provide basic services such as medicine, water, electricity, and gas. This weakens the regime, intensifies public dissatisfaction, and may trigger protest uprisings that could lead to a revolution.”

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