Declining sales found restaurants attempting to win back “the low-income consumer,” but not without attempting to scapegoat President Donald Trump.
After four years of operating under Bidenflation — coupled in some areas with leftist policies wreaking havoc on the workforce — it was Trump’s economic policies that continue to get demonized. Market research firm Circana’s findings about a drop in meals purchased at restaurants are being met with finger-pointing at “Trump’s tariff scheme.”
According to the firm, 1 billion fewer meals were enjoyed at restaurants between January and March 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. A similar comparison from 2024 to 2023 was detailed by the Financial Times as having “remained more or less steady.”
The outlet went on to report, “Fears of a slowing labour market and the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff scheme have discouraged spending, leading to what Denny’s chief executive Kelli Valade called ‘a very choppy consumer environment.’”
Other executives within the industry voiced similar opinions when faulting cautious U.S. consumers for opting to dine out less. For instance, Denny’s CFO Robert Verostek cited “macroeconomic changes” when addressing “pretty volatile” sales in July.
Likewise, Wingstop CEO Michael Skipworth said his own company’s research found “concerns about elevated prices, future job prospects, and general anxiety about the future.”
Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright had similarly contended last month, “I think much of what we’re experiencing right now is due to macro and the consumer — the low-income consumer is looking for value as a price point at present.”
“I think as sentiment improves, the business will improve,” he added.
Meanwhile, as the firm Black Box Intelligence indicated, fast food restaurants saw a decrease of 2.3% in traffic for the second quarter compared to all restaurants at 1% down from the year before. Significant factors in driving up costs were seemingly left out of the equation.
As has been reported, leftist strongholds like the once-Golden State of California have found businesses, consumers, and employees alike holding the bag after forcing an exorbitant minimum wage hike on the industry, leading to the shedding of thousands of jobs.
Efforts to adapt to those policies have seen some companies attempt to “modernize the kitchen,” eliminating positions with automated systems that left some dissatisfied with their experience.
INSIDER: New Chipotle CEO’s quest to ‘modernize the kitchen’ may not bode well for workforce https://t.co/WkW59AuWG7
— BPR (@BIZPACReview) December 18, 2024
Additionally, trends showed that the restaurant industry was aware of what was really turning customers away, as McDonald’s CEO Cris Kempczinski pointed out a “double-digit” drop in low-income customers between April and June despite growth for the chain in the last quarter.
“The result of that is you’re seeing people either skip occasions, so they’re skipping … breakfast or they’re trading down either within our menu or they’re trading down to eating at home,” he said. “This bifurcated consumer base is why we remain cautious about the overall near-term health of the US consumer.”
In response, businesses put added focus on value with offerings like McDonald’s $5 meal deal and Taco Bell’s “luxe cravings boxes.”
Still, Dine Brands CEO John Peyton, whose company owns Applebee’s and IHOP, detailed that consumers are “trading down” to cheaper menu options when they do opt to eat out.
“Right now we have highly leveraged consumers,” said Circana adviser Sally Lyons Wyatt. “It’s going to take a lot of levers being pulled in order to get consumers more comfortable to spend money out of home. And it’s not going to be this year.”
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Native of Brooklyn, NY, Kevin Haggerty is a graduate of Hunter College where he studied Cultural Anthropology and Geography. An avid reader and truth seeker, he currently resides in Texas with his wife and their dog and, when he isn't researching current events and their impacts, you'll find him spending time with friends and family or working on his next novel.
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