Growing Democrat field may unlock surprises

Op-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.

Not that it is a gargantuan surprise that Donald Trump has maintained his lopsided advantage, but most rank-in-file Republicans have already made up their minds on the nominee. The real surprise has come from the other side of the aisle.

It began when candidate, Nikki Haley predicted that Joe Biden would not live through a second term. She candidly pointed out that “a vote for Biden would be a vote for Kamala Harris.” The thought of a President Harris was troubling for a lot of rank-in-file Democrats. Not to mention Independents!

The Reality of Father Time

At 82, Joe Biden looks the part. His stumbling, bumbling, somewhat brazen, often testy demeanor suggests mild dementia, if not early Alzheimer’s. Coupled with his long and relatively unimpressive record of public service, it is easy to understand why a “non-Kamala” alternative might be welcomed. Especially when considering the growing storm clouds that accompany a Congressional investigation.

The Democrat leadership recognized these aspects. The concluded that a rigorous primary would be more than a match for the aged Biden. It didn’t help when renegade Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. threw his hat into the ring! Fringe candidates, Marianne Williamson and Cornell West filled in many of the blanks. The last piece may be Joe Manchin, if he decides that the “No Labels” Party is code for moderate.

Is Gavin the Answer

A lot of Democrats would be delighted to have the California Governor as their nominee. For Silicon Valley, it would amount to “problem solved!” Yet, Gavin Newsome is a cagy character. He knows that if Biden is the nominee and loses, it will make it easier to bring Harris supporters into his camp in 2028.

To challenge Biden in 2024 would carry some risks. So would his replacing Harris on the bottom of the ticket, which has been suggested. The one question mark remaining is “how well” would Newsome fare in the Rust Belt states. Alienating any Democrat voters could make a difference. In the end, it may be better politics to complete his term as promised. A debate with the stodgy, Ron DeSantis could be Gavin’s ideal coming-out party for 2028.

The Fear of a Trump Return

Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. Only Democrats and RINOs are seeing these indictments as having “legs.” While legal scholars such as Alan Dershowitz anticipate potential short-term collateral damage, smart money predicts it will be negligible.

Unlike the Democrat field, the Republican field is shrinking. Neo-cons hope that the next debate will be limited to Haley and DeSantis, but it won’t matter. DeSantis is weighing his 2028 chances. Unless he wins Iowa, he may end it right there. Haley is lobbying for either a cabinet position, the VP nod or even positioning herself for a future Senate run.

Would Trump consider either DeSantis or Haley as his running mate?

A year ago, I wholeheartedly proposed DeSantis as the ideal person. That went out the window with the Florida Governor’s decision to run for President.

Haley and Trump are too far apart ideologically. Haley’s neocon orientation is at odds with Trump’s Populist message that positions Globalists as enemies of the America first agenda.

Increasing numbers of Republicans are taking note of the commonalities of Trump and Vivek Ramaswamy. Vivek’s “America First” message echoes Trump’s. His eloquent analysis of the need to return to the original concept of “three branches of government, not four,” has connected with voters! He reminds us that a 38-year-old millennial will bring younger voters to the GOP. This alone should put him on Trump’s VP shortlist.

The Kennedy Impact

Pundits are predicting that RFK, Jr. will siphon votes away from both Biden and Trump. He likely will. The questions become, “how much and from whom?”

We must remember that the MAGA base came from people who were not affiliated with either party. Kennedy’s message has a certain appeal to them. However, it won’t be to enough to break the bond that they have developed with Trump.

That may not be the case with disgruntled Democrats! Kennedy has revived issues, ranging from censorship to foreign war engagement that were hot topics in America when his father ran for President in 1968. In many ways, he reflects the old JFK Democrats, who have gradually become anachronisms in today’s Democrat party.

It wouldn’t come as a surprise to see Kennedy tapped by a second Trump administration for a high-level cabinet appointment. His positions on COVID and Ukraine would make him a solid selection for either Secretary of State or Secretary of Health and Human Services.

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