By Tara Laxer
The Democratic party recently passed a resolution to re-enact the Iran deal that Trump simply walked away from. The answer is not to jump back into a faulty deal but to amend it.
The Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, has achieved some accomplishments that need to be recognized. Beginning in the 1990’s, Iran had chosen two paths to nuclear weapons: the uranium path and the plutonium path.
Iran was working on the construction of a heavy water nuclear reactor at Arak that would have produced plutonium as a byproduct that could be used for nuclear weapons. Iran has complied with the terms of the JCPOA and decommissioned the reactor at Arak.
As for the uranium path to nuclear weapons, one of the key issues addressed by the deal has to do with Iran’s ability to enrich uranium in gas centrifuges.
According to the terms of the JCPOA, Iran has reduced the number of centrifuges in use from 19,000 to under 6,000. The other 13,000 centrifuges have been placed in storage. Iran is also limited in its stockpiling of enriched uranium to 300 kg. That means that Iran’s ability to develop enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon has been significantly set back. The term “breakout” is crucial to this discussion. It is defined as the time it would take a nation to develop enough highly enriched uranium for one nuclear weapon.
Before the JCPOA, Iran’s breakout capacity was about two months. Now it has been set back to one year.
Although you can’t turn back time to ensure the deal didn’t include a 10 to15-year sunset clause on restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment and plutonium, require an anytime/anywhere check on its nuclear activities without giving a nearly thirty-day notice, a tier system to return sanction money, returning Bob Levinson, showing Iran’s past military dimensions to its nuclear program (in 2009 IAE concluded Iran was designing a weapon) and preventing Iran from launching over 15 ballistic missiles since the deal, signing over $100 billion in contracts with foreign companies since the deal was made or addressing Iran’s role in Syria and address human rights. But these are simply details.
The details can’t fit into a tweet by the president or the Democrats Party. While party loyalists scream their talking points or fight among themselves in Washington, Iran has been expanding its reach across the entire Middle East.
However, something can be done that does not include war, despite the 2015 talking points by many.
The administration or the Democrats platform should include a larger plan which should include a way to strengthen the U.S.-European alliance, address the issue of the proliferation of missiles across the entire region and place permanent restrictions on Iran’s uranium stockpile, enrichment levels, and the number of centrifuges it can use. Finally, end their act of terrorism.
In the new deal, we should stress that Iran should comply with all IAEA obligations and address concerns about its intentions. It would be a mistake to simply return to the agreement as it is or simply just walk away.
Tara Laxer, Former lobbyist on bipartisan Iran&Sudan Sanction
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