Republicans could lose up to 56 House seats if election were held today

Robert Donachie, DCNF

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 15: Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) (R) and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) hold a news conference following the weekly House Republican conference meeting at the GOP headquarters on Capitol Hill March 15, 2016 in Washington, DC. Ryan confirmed that the House Republicans are consulting with Republican candidates about their plans, including front-runner Donald Trump. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) — (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

If the 2018 midterm elections were held today, Republicans could stand to lose 56 seats in the House, effectively handing over the speaker’s gavel and committee chairmanships to Democrats.

The Cook Political Reporter released a revised House ratings map for every congressional district in the U.S. Friday and it finds that Democrats have a shot at up to 56 seats in November.

Some 25 of those seats are in districts that “Lean Republican,” meaning the race is seen as a competitive race, but Republicans have a small advantage in those districts. Another 22 of the 56 districts are considered “Republican Toss Ups,” which means either party has a chance of winning.

Nine Republicans up for reelection this cycle are in districts that either lean Democratic or have a Democrat that is “likely” to take the election.

Fifty House Republicans are either resigning, retiring or seeking other office in 2018. Roughly 22 House members retire each election cycle, so to say the party is going through a tumultuous period of change is not a misnomer.

In fact, its been nearly 25 years — since 1994 — that a majority party incurred as many losses as Republicans have this year. Democrats controlled the House leading up the to the 1994 midterms. The party had 28 members announce retirement and Republicans subsequently took them to the cleaners, picking up 54 seats and outright claiming the majority in what is now known as the “Republican Revolution.”

Republican leadership in the House remains publicly optimistic about their chances of maintaining the majority in the lower chamber.

Cook also notes that, given the GOP’s redistricting advantages and some disunity within the House, it could prove difficult for Democrats to pick up the necessary 24 seats they need to take control.

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