Exclusive: Poll shows Dem primary slugfest brewing for Senate seat GOP seeks to flip

Michigan’s Democratic primary contest is shaping up to be a drawn-out slog for the party’s nomination.

The crowded primary race has no clear frontrunner with more than 40% of the Democratic electorate undecided — according to polling conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Senate Republicans’ campaign arm. Democratic Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed are neck-and-neck — at 24% support and 22% support, respectively — with Democratic Michigan state legislator Mallory McMorrow trailing at 11%, according to an NRSC polling memo exclusively obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Stevens leads El-Sayed, a far-left candidate backed by Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, within the poll’s margin of error of 2.95%. The poll of 582 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted between July 4 and 7.

The race for Michigan’s open Senate seat is viewed as one of Republicans’ top pick-up opportunities to expand their 53-seat majority during the midterms. Democratic Michigan Sen. Gary Peters announced his decision not to seek reelection in January following President Donald Trump carrying the state last November.

The NRSC poll showing a wide-open race is the latest data point suggesting that a contested primary contest could damage the nominee who advances to the general election.

Former Republican Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers is the only well-known GOP candidate in the race thus far and has the backing of the NRSC, Senate GOP leadership, and Republican Michigan Reps. Tim Walberg and Jack Bergman. He came within less than 20,000 votes of defeating Democratic Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin in November and previously won Trump’s endorsement.

Though Stevens leads the crowded primary field within the poll’s margin of error, the four-term congresswoman raised just $1.3 million within her first fundraising quarter as a Senate candidate. She also transferred $1.2 million from her House campaign account.

Stevens is uniquely vulnerable to an attack line hammering the congresswoman for voting in lockstep with former President Joe Biden more than 90% of the time, according to a recent polling memo from a Democratic firm obtained by Politico.

McMorrow, who has quickly risen to prominence among the party’s establishment while adhering to left-wing cultural views, announced a haul of $2.1 million in the year’s second fundraising quarter. The Democratic state senator outraised Stevens by nearly $1 million.

McMorrow has also said in March that she would not back Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer to remain in his leadership role if elected to the upper chamber.

El-Sayed brought in $1.8 million in the second quarter of 2025. The far-left candidate who espouses anti-Israel views does not take corporate PAC contributions.

The NRSC poll also found that nearly half of Democratic primary voters cite entitlement programs — Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security — as the top issue facing Michigan.

Senate Democrats are seeking to make Republican candidates pay a political price for reforming Medicaid within President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful” bill that was signed into law Friday. Though Republicans may have work to do to sell the public on the overall budget package, key elements of Republicans’ Medicaid reforms, including work requirements and barring illegal immigrants from receiving coverage, are popular with voters.

The economy registered second with roughly a quarter of Democratic primary voters surveyed naming it as the top issue in the state, according to the NRSC poll. Climate change and abortion netted just 5% and 3% of the vote, respectively.

Former Michigan State House speaker Joe Tate, a long-shot candidate, netted just 1% of the vote in a hypothetical four-way matchup, according to the poll.

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