Early polling from key Senate race looks grim for Democrats

Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp leads Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in a head-to-head matchup for the 2026 Senate race, according to polling from a conservative public affairs firm.

The poll, conducted by The Tyson Group for P2 Pathway Public Affairs and shared exclusively with the Daily Caller News Foundation, found Ossoff leading several other potential GOP candidates outside of the poll’s four-point margin of error. Georgia’s 2026 Senate race is one of Senate Republicans’ best pickup opportunities to expand their 53-47 seat majority during the upcoming midterms, and Kemp is seen by many in the GOP as a slam-dunk candidate to ruin Ossoff’s reelection bid.

In a hypothetical matchup, Kemp bests Ossoff 49% to 42% with 8% of likely voters undecided. The popular two-term governor also has a 14-point net favorability advantage over the Democratic incumbent, according to the polling.

The polling survey sampled 600 likely general election voters in Georgia and was conducted between Jan. 30 and Jan. 31.

The survey also polled likely general election voters about hypothetical matchups between Ossoff and Georgia Republican Reps. Buddy Carter and Marjorie Taylor Greene, showing both potential GOP challengers within striking distance of the Democratic incumbent.

Ossoff leads Carter 47% to 39% with 13% of likely general election voters undecided, and Greene 51% to 39% with 9% undecided.

Kemp, who currently chairs the Republican Governors Association, has not said whether he plans to challenge Ossoff for the Senate seat. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, appears to be actively lobbying Kemp to jump into the race.

“We are looking for a way to make our Number One recruit a senator,” Republican South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, NRSC chair for the 2026 cycle, told Semafor of Kemp on Jan. 27. “He would be the best candidate in Georgia we’ve had for a very long time.”

Kemp notably defeated Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams during the 2018 and 2022 Georgia Governor races. Abrams has still not conceded her 2018 election loss.

Kemp was also one of the first governors to reopen his state for business during the COVID-19 lockdowns, a move that was criticized at the time, but was praised by many in hindsight.

Georgia voters also appear to have overwhelmingly rejected the Biden administration’s pushing left-wing gender ideology on Americans, according to the polling.

The survey found that roughly 75% of Georgia voters oppose taxpayer-funded sex change procedures and biological males participating in women’s sports.

The Senate is slated to vote on legislation sponsored by Republican Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville banning transgender athletes from participating in women’s sports. Ossoff has thus far not taken a position on the bill, dubbed the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act.

President Donald Trump has a net 4% favorability rating among likely Georgia general election voters, according to the polling.

Trump narrowly lost Georgia to former President Joe Biden in 2020 and trounced 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in the state.

Despite a majority of Georgia voters approving of Trump’s job performance, Ossoff has largely refrained from voting for the president’s cabinet nominees, according to a DCNF review of senators’ roll call votes.

Ossoff has voted for just two of Trump’s nominees — Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe — and skipped votes on Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, and Department of Interior Secretary Doug Burgum.

Though Ossoff voted for the Laken Riley Act, a bill intended to crack down on illegal immigration, he joined with his Democratic colleagues to block legislation sanctioning International Criminal Court officials for seeking to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ossoff also cast two procedural votes last December that would have restricted certain weapon sales to Israel.

Other Republican candidates could jump into the race if Kemp were to pass on a Senate run.

Republican Georgia Rep. Mike Collins told The Hill on Saturday that he supports the “Draft Kemp movement” as the Georgia governor mulls a Senate run.

“Our governor can win that seat,” Collins told The Hill. “But if he takes a pass, I’ll talk with President Trump and see who he needs us to support to make sure he has another vote in the Senate.”

Kemp led Ossoff 46% to 40% in a hypothetical matchup with 14% undecided, according to a Club for Growth poll conducted in mid-January that was shared with the DCNF.

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