‘He’s the favorite to win’: Ex-CNN analyst thinks Matt Gaetz is ‘frontrunner’ to be next Florida gov despite ‘baggage’

Former CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza said Wednesday that former Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida is likely to become the state’s governor despite his substantial “baggage.”

Gaetz told the Tampa Bay Times on Tuesday that he is considering a run for Florida governor in 2026, just weeks following the House Ethics Committee releasing a report accusing him of paying more than ten women for sexual favors or illicit drugs — including a 17-year-old girl — between 2017 and 2020. Cillizza, on his YouTube channel, argued that Gaetz is well-positioned to secure the Republican nomination and, subsequently, the governorship, as Florida has become increasingly Republican in recent elections.

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“I know people roll their eyes at this, but I honestly think he’s the frontrunner to be the Republican nominee for governor in 2026, and if he is the Republican nominee, then he’s the favorite to win because Florida has moved in the direction of Republicans in a pretty significant way in the last couple elections,” Cillizza said. “So yes, you could absolutely see a Governor Matt Gaetz at this time in 2027. I don’t think there’s any question.”

The former CNN analyst identified potential rivals for the GOP nomination, including Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, Republican Rep. Byron Donalds, Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody. However, he noted that Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose term ends in 2026, is likely to appoint Moody as a replacement for outgoing Republican Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who is President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for secretary of state, as Politico reported Wednesday.

“Ron DeSantis … said that he would make a decision on filling the likely vacancy created by Marco Rubio being confirmed as secretary of state, which hasn’t happened yet but we expect will, that DeSantis said he would fill that vacancy or announce his choice to fill that vacancy in early January,” Cillizza said. “Well, look at the calendar — we’re in early January, people. I think Gaetz wanted to get out in front of all the chatter that will be set off about 2026 once DeSantis makes that pick.”

“I think Gaetz wanted to make clear to everyone whose name I just mentioned — Byron Donalds and Wilton Simpson and Casey DeSantis and Ashley Moody — that yes, he is probably running for governor,” he added. “And, you know, he’s going to be a pretty formidable candidate even with all the baggage he brings to the race … you should take Gaetz’s potential candidacy — I think he’s going to run — seriously because I do think, given how powerful he is within the MAGA movement both in Florida and nationally, he’s probably the favorite. Even with everything under — all the water under the bridge — he’s probably still the favorite to be the Republican nominee for governor and the next governor of Florida.”

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