CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten broke down House Speaker Mike Johnson’s chances of getting reelected to hold the gavel in a Friday segment.
The House is scheduled to vote on whether Johnson will remain in his position in the 119th Congress, where he holds the narrowest chances in over 100 years. Johnson will lose the speakership if two House Republicans, along with all Democrats, vote against him or if one congressperson from his party votes in opposition while two others abstain, Enten said.
“This is the simple math. We went through it yesterday, I feel like it’s deja vu all over again when it comes to these speaker races,” Enten said. “Look, this is the simple math. GOP reps can sink Johnson’s speaker bid in scenario one if just two vote against him… if just two Republican representatives vote against him, assuming 434 members vote and no Democrats vote for Johnson which is what we expect… if just two Republicans vote against him, he doesn’t win the speakership. How about scenario two? If one votes against him, and two abstain i.e. vote present, then that too would deny Johnson the speakership.”
“Look, we are dealing with a historically narrow majority, the narrowest going into a speaker’s vote this early in the Congress since 1917. And the bottom line is, the math is just so, so tight,” Enten continued.
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Republican Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie has vowed to vote against Johnson in the upcoming speaker vote, which would threaten the speaker’s chances of reelection. Republican Reps. Victoria Spartz of Indiana and Chip Roy of Texas have further expressed serious concerns about Johnson’s speakership.
Johnson has a 35% chance of winning the speakership on the first ballot and a 90% of earning his position at some point throughout the voting process, Enten said.
“Just because [Johnson] loses on the first ballot, doesn’t mean he won’t win on the second ballot, third ballot, etc,” Enten said. “At some point, if Johnson wins, that’s 90%. It’s not 100%, but it’s far more likely than not. So if Johnson loses on the first ballot, it doesn’t mean he won’t eventually get it, which seems to be the most likely possibility.”
Massie has been fiercely critical of Johnson for working with House Democrats on a massive spending bill right before the Christmas recess. He notably voted in support of Republican Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s motion to vacate Johnson in April, which congressional members rejected in a 359-43 vote.
No other Republican lawmaker has publicly announced their plan to challenge Johnson for the speakership.
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