Op-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.
For those who took the time to read President Donald J. Trump’s “The Art of the Deal,” understanding his upcoming moves with Russia, Canada and Panama should be clear.
Trump pointed out in his book that the key to successfully negotiating a deal was “knowing what the other guy wants without him knowing what you will take in return.” Trump knows what Putin wants. He knows what Justin Trudeau’s essence of Canadian liberalism wants. He knows what Panama wants. Most significantly, he knows what his own agenda includes, who is on board and who will try to obstruct.
Russia’s Wants and Needs
Let us start with Putin. We all think we know about Ukraine. Do we? It is blessed with “black dirt, “Chernozem,” the finest of soils. It is mostly flat, reminiscent of Kansas and Nebraska. It has the ideal climate for growing wheat and corn. Hence the description, “break basket.” It also has a several “warm weather.” The Black Sea fleet is anchored at Sevastopol, on the west side of the Crimea peninsula. Currently, Russia’s lease runs out in 2036.
America is painfully becoming aware of three disturbing practices in Ukraine. (a) American engineered, bio-chemical labs have been identified on the Ukrainian-Russian border. (b) Ukraine is believed to be the “world capital” for money laundering. (c) Ukraine is reported to be a “hub” for human trafficking.
Few know of Russia’s dispute with China over outer Manchuria. This “Texas sized” area includes two large cities, Khabarovsk, and the North Pacific port of Vladivostok. Thank to global warming, the latter is now largely ice-free, year-round. Vladivostok is connected by rail to St. Petersburg on the distant Baltic Sea, eleven time zones to the west.
The Chinese lost outer Manchuria in 1862 but continue to consider it theirs. Outer Manchuria produces some of the most valuable hardwood timber in the world. China engages in a continuous “poaching practice” of this timber, brazenly bribing Russian timber managers and subsequently taking the lumber south waiting for American, Japanese and European buyers who will convert the stolen timber to expensive furniture.
Oh, Canada!
Canada is America’s ally. They are likewise the beneficiaries of American generosity. When Trump suggested that they disavow sovereignty in favor of becoming the 51st state, he was exercising slight hyperbole. Hidden in that notion is his knowledge of what Ontario and Quebec want: “A socialist state that provides services to their people without the need to allocate funding for their own defense, reminiscent of Denmark.” Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces have a combined population of twenty-eight million. The land size is equivalent to “Texas X 4.”
Panamanian Pride
The Panamanians still cannot believe their good fortune of the late Jimmy Carter’s stupidity! Why Carter gave them the canal will puzzle historians indefinitely. Trump will not take it away from them. He would be villainized in a region where he needs to do far more important things. For the U.S. to renege on Carter’s generous, albeit idiot gesture would be damaging diplomatically. It would be comparable to Russia attempting to ask for Alaska’s return. Neither will happen! Panamanians simply want to keep things as they are. In return, they will continue to treat American ex-pats like royalty.
Solutions that work for all
Let us begin with Panama. It will be as simple as their denying China the use of the Canal. The U.S. accounts for 72% of canal traffic. The Panamanians will conclude that “loyalty” was part of the deal. Remember when they were the only country willing to give the Shah asylum during the 1979 Iranian revolution?
Moving on to Canada. Smart money says that IF the U.S. invites the western provinces to join the United States as individual states, the answer will be a resounding YES! Add the Canadian territories and their 150,000 people and you have eleven million people. Millions of Canadians might outwardly protest, but in their hearts, they would know that they were getting the Canada they want: “A big, resource rich Denmark with protection from the most powerful country on the planet.”
It is also a mathematical certainty that Greenlanders will trade welfare recipient status for millionaire status, the result of Denmark’s sale to the United States.
Putin wants Ukraine, all of Ukraine. Like Trump, is a “Realist,” in political science jargon. For such a concession, he knows that he would need to do something big for Trump. Non-aggression treaties with former Soviet satellites are a given. So is returning the two stolen provinces to Georgia. We are talking about political and military support for reestablishing the Monroe Doctrine. In short, no political or military support for Marxist regimes in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. The two countries would jointly tell China “Go home. You are now dealing with both of us. If you want to help these people, that’s fine. But Marxism is now allowed.”
Finally, America would recognize Outer Manchuria as Russian territory and condemn China for the continuous theft of Russian resources. While Russia might not want such recognition, America’s overture would be seen as sincere. The Kremlin knows that Russia’s forests constitute the nation’s most valuable resource. Unlike agricultural lands which have been privatized, they remain nationalized. Access to Western capital would make the final transition to private ownership more expedient and less complicated.
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