‘Energy-limited resources’: Huge swaths of America face blackout risks if winter is bitter, grid watchdog warns

Hundreds of millions of Americans risk experiencing power shortages this winter if weather conditions are harsh, according to a new report published by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a power grid watchdog.

Nearly all residents of the Northeast, Texas and Midwest could face energy shortfalls in the event of a colder-than-usual winter, the NERC report states. The lack of grid reliability is driven largely by growing electricity demand as well as the replacement of coal-fired and older natural gas-fired generators with energy-limited resources such as solar power.

“Foreseeable extreme cold temperatures have the potential to push the existing natural gas supply infrastructure to maximum capacity,” the report warns. “Serving winter load is becoming more challenging and complex as coal-fired and older natural gas-fired generators retire and are replaced by variable and energy-limited resources.”

NERC’s 2024–2025 WRA finds much of North America at an elevated risk of #energy shortfalls in extreme conditions. No areas are identified as having a high risk and all areas are expected to have adequate resources under normal #winter peak load conditions. https://t.co/TOPhkCZumt pic.twitter.com/kANLz4dasl

— NERC (@NERC_Official) November 14, 2024

The expansion of power-hungry data centers has led to a surge in electricity demand, according to the NERC study, with consulting firm Bain projecting utilities could have to increase their annual power generation by as much as 26% by 2028. Meanwhile, the Biden-Harris administration has sought to reduce natural gas and coal-fired power generation, finalizing a rule in April requiring that existing coal plants use carbon capture and storage to control 90% of their carbon emissions by 2032 if they want to stay running past 2039, and that certain new natural gas plants cut their emissions 90% by 2032, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Grid operators have requested the EPA nix the power plant rule in order to protect long-term energy dependability, with four major regional operators filing an amicus brief in support of red states’ legal challenge against the rule, stating it would jeopardize the grid’s ability to reliably meet American energy needs.

Mark Christie — a top power grid regulator — wrote a letter to lawmakers in August claiming the EPA rule could be “catastrophic.”

“If the EPA’s new power plant rule survives court challenge, it will force the retirements of nearly all remaining coal generation plants and will prevent the construction of vitally needed new combined-cycle baseload gas generation,” Christie wrote. “This loss of vitally needed dispatchable generation resources will be catastrophic.”

The EPA and Federal Electric Reliability Corporation did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

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