Op-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.
Based on available data, this is now Trump’s election to lose. The tangible factors—current polling, past polling, and past performances—point this way. The intangible factors—the two major things most likely to affect both camps’ turnout—do too.
According to Real Clear Politics’ average of national polling, Trump leads Harris 48.4% to 48.1%. Such a lead seems miniscule, but it’s larger than it seems. It is because in each of the last two elections, Democrats have run up “surplus margins” of 4.5% of the popular vote in California and New York—the votes count but don’t return additional electoral votes. Assuming Harris will do so again, then the effect is akin to sports gambling: Harris needs to win by 4.5% to “cover”—Biden did in 2020 and won; Clinton didn’t in 2016 and lost.
Looking at those crucial seven battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada) that have determined the winner of the last two elections, and things look even better for Trump. According to RCP’s average of battleground-state polling, Trump leads Harris 48.5% to 47.5%. How important are these states? In 2016, Trump won six of seven; in 2020, Biden won six of seven. Currently, Trump leads in five of seven.
Looking at momentum, and the story is similar. According to Real Clear Politics’ average of national polling, Trump’s recent leads are his largest since early August. The same applies to Trump’s 1 percentage-point lead in the battleground states. As Hillary Clinton could attest, momentum is important: it shows where a campaign is going, not where it’s been.
The other tangible is past performance. Trump is running well ahead of where he was in 2020 and 2016. Trump’s 48.4% in RCP’s national poll average is ahead of the 46.9% of the popular vote he won in 2020 and the 46.1% he won in 2016. He is also running ahead of where he was at this point in 2020 and 2016’s national poll averages: In 2020 on 11/1, he trailed Biden by 7.9 percentage points and in 2016, her trailed Clinton by 1.6 percentage points.
The same thing applies to the seven battleground states. Compared to 2020: in Arizona, Trump is ahead of where he was (up 2.3 percentage points versus up 0.6 percentage points); in Nevada, (up 1.5 percentage points versus trailing 4 percentage points); in Wisconsin (trailing 0.3 percentage points versus trailing by 6.8 percentage points); in Michigan (trailing by 0.8 percentage points versus trailing by 6.5 percentage points); in Pennsylvania (leading by 0.4 percentage points versus trailing by 3.6 percentage points); in North Carolina (leading by 1.5 percentage points versus trailing by 1.2 percentage points); and in Georgia (leading by 2.6 percentage points versus trailing by 0.8 percentage points).
Finally, Trump closed strong at the end of 2020 and 2016. In both elections, there was a “Trump bump” from the last polling average to the popular vote outcome. In 2020, it was 2.7 percentage points nationally and in 2016 it was 1.1 percentage points. While not huge, it was there in both and in a tight race, important.
Regarding 2024’s tangibles, the verdict is straightforward: Trump is ahead of Harris; he is ahead of his past performances; and he is ahead of where he needs to be to win.
Regarding the intangibles—2024’s significant “deltas,” or changes, that could affect the race—there are two primary ones: Republicans’ embrace of early voting and the impact that running behind could have on Harris supporters.
After largely rejecting early voting in 2020, Republicans have embraced it in 2024. The effect could be significant and make it virtually certain that Republicans will record more of their support as actual votes. This can only be a plus for Republicans and, since Democrats supported early voting in 2020, one where Democrats are unlikely to match Republicans’ increase.
Also, in the two previous elections, Democrats have been running ahead of Trump. With Harris now running behind—both where Biden and Clinton were and where Trump is—will this convince some of her supporters to not vote? Harris voters are largely untested; she has run only one national race—and then not atop the ticket.
Put together, 2024’s two primary intangibles could see Trump harvesting more of his increased support and Harris harvesting less of her decreased support.
All 2024’s data appear to point one way: favoring Trump. And this will play out across political terrain where Harris is playing defense in six of the seven battleground states and Trump needs to flip only 35 electoral votes to win. To make matters worse for Harris, Trump appears to be putting more states in play: as evidence, look at his late campaign forays into New Mexico and Virginia.
None of this means that Trump is certain to win. There are no certainties in American politics. But it does look like that this has become Trump’s race to lose.
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- Closing trends favor Trump - November 5, 2024
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