Journalist Mark Halperin said on Monday that the turnout of women would decide the presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump leads Harris by 0.1% in a head-to-head matchup, according to the RealClearPolling average of polls from Oct. 11 to Nov. 3, with Trump’s lead increasing to 0.3% when Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, Independent candidate Cornel West, and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver are included in surveys. Halperin said that he believed the swing states would be carried by one candidate, and not split, saying the percentage of the voters that were women would be decisive.
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“The kind of conventional wisdom amongst Democrats is – and they’re buoyed by this poll – is, she’s closing strong, Trump isn’t and that undecideds, David Plouffe argued last week, are breaking her way,” Halperin said.
“I think right now, people ask me all the time what’s going to happen, I think right now and I continue to believe, and have for a while, that it’s not going to be close,” Halperin continued. “Either the makeup of the electorate is going to be 54 or 55 percent female and she’s going to win, or it’s not and she’s going to lose. And I could be wrong, but I don’t think it’s going to be different state to state.”
Trump holds a 21-point lead among men, 57% to 36%, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of Michigan voters released Sunday, while Harris leads Trump among women by a 17-point margin, 56% to 39%. Across all the battleground states, Trump has a 15-point lead among men, while Harris is ahead by 17% among women, according to the poll.
Trump leads in the RealClearPolling averages for five of the seven swing states, with Harris holding small leads in Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump outperformed polls in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, according to RealClearPolling.
Hillary Clinton led Trump by 6.5% in the final average before losing Wisconsin to Trump by 0.7%, while Biden led Trump by 6.7% before eking out a 0.7% win in 2020. In Michigan, Biden led Trump by 5.1% but only won by 2.8% in 2020, while Hillary Clinton led Trump by 3.6% in 2016, only to lose the state by 0.3% when the votes were coun
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