Fox News’ Karl Rove said Tuesday that Republican nominee Donald Trump only needs to win one state between Pennsylvania, Georgia, or Michigan in order to become president-elect.
Trump would win 252 electoral votes if he wins the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina on Election Night, which would only require the former president to win either Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Georgia in order to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win, Fox News host Bill Hemmer pointed out. Rove said Trump can afford to lose some of the key battleground states and still come out “over the top” in such a close race.
“It’s gonna be absolutely close,” Rove said. “As you said, Arizona appears to be [Trump’s] best state, but in North Carolina, it appears to be going their way. More Republicans are voting in early voting than our Democrats, but the state has a large group of unaffiliated independent voters, we don’t know exactly how they’re voting, but it’s gonna be close because as you say, if he wins Georgia, the race is over. If he wins Pennsylvania and loses Georgia, the race is over because if he does take Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, it gets him within either one of the 15 or 19 state electoral votes: Michigan, Georgia is 16, Pennsylvania [is] 19. Any one of them puts him over the top.”
The Republican nominee has made historic inroads with many demographics, particularly among blue-collar workers, young black and Latino men, who have distanced themselves from the Democratic Party in droves.
WATCH:
The former president holds a nearly 2-point advantage against Harris in Arizona, a 0.2-point lead in Nevada, and a 1.2-point lead in North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages. Trump further holds a 0.3-point lead in Pennsylvania, while Harris holds a 0.1-point lead in Wisconsin and a nearly 1-point advantage in Michigan, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Trump took the lead nationally over Harris with 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll published Oct. 24, while a new CNBC poll found the former president securing a 2-point lead nationally. The former president also held a 0.8-point lead against Harris across every swing state as of Oct. 18, according to RealClearPolling averages.
The former president has historically outperformed his polling averages in the 2016 and 2020 elections, though there is a chance he may not in the upcoming election, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Tuesday.
The former president could become the first Republican nominee to win the popular vote since 2004.
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