CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Thursday that Republican nominee Donald Trump may be in a “very strong position” in Wisconsin if the polls are underestimating his support.
President Joe Biden won Wisconsin by about 1 point, 49.6% to 48.9%, after leading Trump by 8 points in the final polls, indicating that the current polls may be overestimating Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead in the current polls weeks before the 2024 election, Enten said. Harris and Trump both have an over 80% chance of winning the election if they secure Wisconsin, he said, making it a “pivotal” state to win.
“One of the real questions I have is whether the polls are actually going to be any good this time around because you’ll look in 2020, what you see in the final polls in Wisconsin, you saw Biden up by 8 [points],” Enten said. “The actual result was Biden by a point, now I’ll note, I rounded that number up, I think it was 0.63 percentage points. So the question is, are the polls actually gonna be right this time around or are they gonna, again, underestimate Donald Trump? If so, Donald Trump is in a very strong position in the Badger State.”
Harris has an 82% chance and Trump an 88% chance of securing the 270 electoral necessary to win the election if they are able to secure Wisconsin, making the state “more pivotal” for Harris to win than it is for the former president, Enten added.
“Chance they win the election if they win Wisconsin, for Kamala Harris, if she wins Wisconsin, 82% chance she wins the election,” Enten said. “For Donald Trump, it’s an 88% chance if he wins the election because the bottom line is, for Kamala Harris, the state of Wisconsin is more pivotal than it is for Donald Trump. It’s part of, of course, that Great Lake wall.”
Harris is leading Wisconsin by a narrow 0.3%, 47.9% to 47.6%, according to FiveThirtyEight. The vice president is tightly leading in Michigan 47.7% to 47.1% and in Pennsylvania 48% to 47.5%, according to more FiveThirtyEight polling.
Biden won Michigan by about 3 points in 2020, though a FiveThirtyEight poll indicated he led Trump by nearly 8 points. He also won Pennsylvania 50% to 48.8%, though a FiveThirtyEight poll indicated he led the then-president by nearly 5 points.
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