Former President Donald Trump’s chances of securing an Electoral College victory in the upcoming November election have improved, as a recent poll shows him leading in Michigan.
A J.L. Partners model showed Trump with an advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris, giving Trump a 58.8% chance of winning the electoral college compared to Harris’ 41.1%, after a Michigan poll released on Thursday by Michigan News Source and MIRS showed him leading in the Great Lakes State. Previous polling by The New York Times and Siena College revealed Harris and Trump locked in a close race in the key battleground of Michigan as well.
“Things continue to move against Harris—Trump’s win probability has increased by another two points since last week. The win probability gap has now widened to nearly 18 points,” Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, said, according to the Daily Mail.
“The fact that Michigan has moved into the Trump camp is significant and a major blow to the Harris campaign. New polls this week may temper this increasingly good news for Trump,” Hunter said.
NEW: @DailyMail @J_L_Partners Election model
Trump moves to a 58.8% probability of winning. Michigan has moved from Tossup Harris to Tossup Trump.
New central estimate:
Trump: 302
Harris: 236Story: https://t.co/Jt6T1lMhIt
Data: https://t.co/qzcKPveJtE
— J.L. Partners
(@J_L_Partners) October 8, 2024
The model used by J.L. Partners analyzes the latest polling data, 80 years of election results, and economic statistics to project the electoral college odds for each candidate. It forecasts that Harris stands a significantly higher likelihood of securing the popular vote, consistent with the Democratic Party’s performance in seven of the last eight elections.
Trump trails Harris by just 0.5% in Michigan in the RealClearPolling average. He previously secured Michigan in the 2016 presidential election with 47.5% of the vote, edging out Hillary Clinton’s 47.3%, but fell to President Joe Biden in 2020, capturing 47.8% against Biden’s 50.6%, 270 to Win reported.
The Harris and Trump campaigns did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
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