Cook Political Report shifts key swing state Senate race in Republicans’ favor

Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde’s electoral odds against Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin saw a boost after a Tuesday Cook Political Report rating shifted the race in the GOP’s favor.

Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election and campaign watcher, shifted its rating for the Wisconsin Senate seat from lean Democrat to toss-up. Recent polls still show Hovde at a deficit, although the Republican has begun to narrow in on the Democratic incumbent’s lead, which may give Republicans the leg up they need to regain a Senate majority.

“After 25 years in Washington, Tammy Baldwin has become the typical D.C. politician, voting in lock-step with the failed Biden agenda and hiding her Wall Street partner’s stock trades from her constituents,” Tate Mitchel, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement. “Wisconsinites are ready for change, and Eric Hovde has the momentum.”

“Wisconsin is a must-win state, but National Republicans just dropped another $17M to help Eric Hovde buy this Senate seat,” Baldwin’s campaign said in a Tuesday post on X. “The GOP’s last-minute ad blitz is moving the needle.”

Baldwin, who has served in the Senate since 2013, defeated Republican challenger Tommy Thompson in 2012 by 5.6% and Republican challenger Leah Vukmir in 2018 by 10.8%. Despite Baldwin’s winning streak, Hovde is trailing just five points behind the incumbent, according to an October poll from Research Co.

Hovde is an entrepreneur who was born and raised in Madison, Wisconsin and has campaigned to secure the southern border, reduce inflation, and lower the cost of healthcare, according to his website. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Hovde in April and has since campaigned alongside him in Wisconsin.

“Eric Hovde is running strong for the U.S. Senate in Wisconsin,” Trump said in a Truth Social post from August. “He has my Complete and Total Endorsement, and has, right from the beginning. WISCONSIN, GET OUT AND VOTE – GO ERIC!!!”

Hovde and Baldwin are expected to debate on Oct. 18, less than a month from Election Day.

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