Trump’s lead widens following his assassination attempt, poll shows

Former President Donald Trump has widened his lead over President Joe Biden in the aftermath of his assassination attempt on Saturday, according to a Morning Consult poll released Friday.

Trump leads Biden by four points, receiving 46% support to Biden’s 42%, just days after 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks fired shots at the former president during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, according to the poll. This four-point lead is Trump’s largest polling advantage since February and is just one point short of his record five-point lead over Biden in January.

The attempted assassin narrowly missed Trump, wounding his ear, killing 50-year-old volunteer fire chief Corey Comperatore and injuring two other attendees.

The assassination attempt is the latest in a string of events that have tilted polls in Trump’s favor. In the aftermath of Biden’s dismal debate performance and Trump’s 34 felony convictions in a case brought by Manhattan Attorney Alvin Bragg, Trump’s support went up by five points, according to the poll.

Both the Bragg trial and the presidential debate prompted a slew of dismal polls that put Biden at a disadvantage and bolstered Trump’s standing going into November.

Trump’s favorability within his party is stronger among GOP voters, with 91% of registered Republicans supporting Trump going into the election, while 85% of Democrats support Biden, according to the poll. More independents backed Trump over Biden, with 38% saying they will vote for the former president and 32% said they will vote for the incumbent.

Biden’s support within his own party has been flailing after his first presidential debate performance, which has prompted many prominent Democrats to publicly call for Biden to drop out of the race.

Trump has maintained a steady lead in all seven battleground states, but he also saw a subtle uptick in the polls after the assassination attempt on July 15, according to polling averages from RealClearPolling. In a head-to-head race, Trump currently leads Biden in Georgia by an average of four points, in North Carolina by an average of 5.7 points, in Pennsylvania by an average of 4.5 points, in Michigan by an average of 1.7 points, in Wisconsin by an average of 3.3 points, in Nevada by an average of 5.1 points and in Arizona by an average of six points.

The Morning Consult poll surveyed 9,414 registered voters from July 15 to July 17 with a margin of error of one percentage point.

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