Down ballot fallout a major concern for Democrats

Op-ed views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.

Perhaps the single greatest worry of Joe Biden staying on the ticket is “fallout.” Would many Democrat voters, unhappy with their choices, simply stay home?

This is the current quandary for party bosses. Two problems have surfaced. The first is if Biden can beat Trump. That looks increasingly doubtful. Yet if Democrats stay with the incumbent, what would be the overall impact? A loss to Trump would be bad! Down ballot implications expand the problem.

Identity Politics Haunting Democrats

Democrats should have held a primary. Even if Biden had abstained from participation, party members might have been given a better picture of their options. To their credit, the Republicans did expose all seekers for the high office. This time last year, things looked radically different. Trump’s legal woes loomed. Ron DeSantis looked to be the heir apparent.

In Dem’s corner, Robert Kennedy, Jr. had the hue of his father. A lot of long-term party stalwarts continue to long for those days. Why Democrat bosses shunned Kennedy remains an overriding question. Maybe it’s because the contemporary DNC isn’t the party of RFK in 1968. Not to mention the party of his brother, Harry S. Truman or even Bill Clinton.

No doubt a Democrat primary would have drawn participants. Besides Kennedy, it’s possible that Joe Manchin might have thrown his hat into the ring. Congressman, Dean Phillips would have been in the mix. Perhaps even a Southern Governor such as Roy Cooper or Andy Beshear!

It bucks tradition to unseat an incumbent president. A primary would have been more about finding a suitable replacement for Kamala Harris. Herein lies the problem. In 2020, Biden pledged to put a woman of color on the bottom of his ticket. Nearly four years later, Americans are assessing Harris’ performance. For most, she has been found wanting.

Presidential Options Shrinking for Democrats

In a perfect world, Joe Biden would have informed his party that he was calling it quits after finishing his current term. At 82, he would have climbed Mr. Olympus. There would have been countless adulations for the retiring Biden. It would have also created a wide-open primary.

This didn’t happen! Perhaps it was by design. Party bosses may have feared that a hotly contested primary might yield an unelectable candidate. As many recall, Bernie Sanders looked to be on the cusp of running away with the nomination in 2020 until “the brass” stepped in.

On the other side of the coin, it’s probable that Kamala Harris would not have been the nominee. Washington insiders are now predicting that women of color will “blow up the convention” if she is passed over in favor of Gavin Newson or Gretchen Whitmeyer. This is troubling, considering the Vice President’s poll numbers are worse than Biden’s! There have even been hints of evoking the 25^th amendment if Biden refuses to step down. This upcoming week may be telling.

Trump’s V.P. Choice

On the Republican side, all eyes are on running mate selection. Trump has said that it will not be Vivek Ramaswamy or Tulsa Gabbard. That leaves about six options. The short list is said to have narrowed to three. GOP insiders, while not openly saying it, are giving hints that it will be Florida Senator, Marco Rubio. If Rubio is indeed the choice, Dems task of overtaking the 45^th president will have just gotten harder!

Who tops the Democrat ticket could have a profound effect in swing state Senate races. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Montana, Nevada and Arizona are all winnable races for Republicans. Rubio could add that needed edge in all seven states, especially the latter two. That would be good news for Sam Brown and Kari Lake!

Would Harris at the top of the ticket make a difference? It might in more coming out to vote. The question becomes, “for who?” The VP isn’t polling well with Independents. Latino men are 50/50 and with Rubio on the bottom of the Republican ticket, the win column is probable. While influential black women, such as Fani Willis strongly support Harris, what about black men? Smart money suggests that Trump might pull as many as 1/3 of these voters away from Democrats.

Trump Getting Stronger

Last week’s SCOTUS decision gave Trump a new lease on life. The Manhattan sentencing has been delayed. Chances are, it will end in a dismissal. Aileen Cannon’s case won’t happen until 2025, if at all. The Georgia case looks increasingly like a nothing burger, instigated by corrupt, incompetent players. While Jack Smith vows to go forward, is there enough there to get him to second base, let alone first base!

All actions point to a weaponized DOJ. There are calls for Merrick Garland’s removal. Increasing numbers of Americans are waking up to the fact that they have been lied to by the government and their convenient henchman, the media. Both Garland and Smith would greatly benefit from revisiting the European landscape 100 years ago. There are instances when past reflections can clarify present conditions.

None of these factors bode well for Democrat chances in November.

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