Trump ties with Biden in longtime blue state a week after Bragg guilty verdict, poll shows

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Virginia just one week after he was convicted, a new poll reveals.

Last week, Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the case brought forth by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. Despite this, Trump maintains his lead in Florida, Arizona and Nevada, and ties with Biden with 48% in historically blue Virginia, according to a recent Fox News poll that surveyed voters following Trump’s conviction on May 31.

The last time Virginia voted for a Republican presidential candidate was for former President George W. Bush in 2004. Trump lost in Virginia in 2016 and in 2020 against former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Biden respectively.

Following his guilty verdict, Trump’s campaign donation page crashed within minutes of reaching the guilty verdict. Within a day, the Trump campaign announced a record breaking $34.8 million from small dollar donors. Along with his record breaking cash flow, Trump managed to maintain his lead in crucial states.

In Florida, Trump is leading Biden in a two-way race by four points, polling at 50.6% while Biden trails behind at 42%, according to a RealClear Polling (RCP) average. In a five-way race with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr and Cornel West, Trump’s lead grows to 10 points at 48% while Biden polls at 37.5%.

Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020, but by a slim margin. In 2016, Trump won the sunshine state by a little over 1%, and in 2020 he kept the state red by a little over 3.3%. His lead in the upcoming election gives Trump a slightly larger advantage.

Trump continues polling ahead of Biden by roughly four points in Arizona, leading with 48.3% compared to Biden at 44.1%, the RCP average shows. In a five-way race, Trump has a roughly five point advantage with 43.8% and Biden at 38.2%, marking a significant advantage for the former president compared to Biden’s razor thin margin in the 2020 election.

In 2016, Trump narrowly won Arizona but lost Nevada to Clinton. In the following 2020 cycle, Trump lost both Arizona and Nevada to Biden. Going into 2024, Trump’s leads

Trump is also ahead of Biden by roughly five points in Nevada, where he is polling at 48.3% while Biden polls at 43%, according to RCP. In 2020, Biden won Nevada by less than three percentage points, while Trump has consistently led the state in 2024. Taking into account third-party candidates, Trump maintains a 6 point lead at 42.5% with Biden at 35.7%.

The Fox Virginia poll surveyed 1,107 registered voters and had a three point margin of error.

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