Trump wins among Independents even if convicted in criminal cases: Poll

A new poll suggests that former President Donald Trump would earn the support of a majority of Independent voters in the 2024 presidential election even if he is convicted in two of the criminal cases currently being brought against him.

Trump, the leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, has polled ahead of President Joe Biden, the leading Democratic candidate, in multiple recent polls. A new survey conducted by HarrisX for the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University shows that Trump would win a majority of Independent votes even if he is convicted on federal charges of mishandling classified information or state charges in Georgia of a racketeering conspiracy to overturn the state’s presidential election results.

If convicted in the federal classified documents trial, Trump would win 51% of Independents compared to Biden’s 49%. If convicted in the Georgia racketeering trial, Trump would win 53% of Independents compared to Biden’s 47%.

In one case, however, Trump is tied with Biden among Independent voters if he is convicted. That case concerns Trump’s effort to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election via the certification of electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2021, where he is set to be tried at the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia this year.

The poll was conducted between Jan. 17 and 18, 2024, and surveyed 2,346 registered voters across the United States. FiveThirtyEight analytics gives the poll a reliability grade of “B.”

The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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