Democratic voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania are increasingly leaving the party for the GOP ahead of the 2024 election.
Pennsylvania, which has picked the winner of the presidential election for the last four cycles, has lost over 35,000 of its Democratic voters to Republicans this year, according to Dec. 18 data released by the state’s Department of State. Conversely, only 15,622 of the state’s Republican voters became Democrats in 2023.
Additionally, roughly 20,900 Democrats and 18,900 Republicans have withdrawn from both major political parties, according to the state data.
In 2016, Pennsylvania narrowly broke for former President Donald Trump, where he beat Hillary Clinton by less than one point. The state swung back to the Democrats in 2020 when Biden won 50% to 48.8%.
The RealClearPolitics average for a 2024 hypothetical rematch between the two in Pennsylvania suggests Trump is currently leading Biden by one point. The former president is also leading Biden in several other crucial battleground states, such as Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan.
Pennsylvania also features a critical Senate race on the ballot, as Democratic Sen. Bob Casey seeks reelection. The senator will likely have to face Republican David McCormick next year for the seat that The Cook Political Report currently characterizes as in the “Lean D” category.
Recent polling largely suggests that Casey, who has held the seat since 2007, has an advantage in the race, as he’s beating McCormick anywhere from six to 15 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s survey compilation.
“Current voter registration trends and polling in Pennsylvania should be setting off alarms for President Biden and Democrats at the state and national level,” Erik Telford, the Commonwealth Foundation’s senior vice president of public affairs, told Newsweek, who first reported the numbers.
However, Pennsylvania still has nearly a half million more Democratic voters than Republican voters ahead of 2024, according to the state data.
Neither the state’s Democratic or Republican parties immediately responded to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s requests for comment.
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