Time to go, Joe: Warren seizes lead for 1st time in crucial Iowa poll

Screen capture … Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren … Credit: ABC

A new poll taken in Iowa reflects Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s momentum surge to the forefront of the leftist scrum. It marks the first time a major poll has someone other than Joe Biden leading the pack of candidates for the 2020 Democrat presidential nomination.

Saturday evening, the latest CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of likely Iowa caucus attendees was released, showing Warren with a narrow lead over Biden, 22 percent to 20 percent.

The rest of the field lags further back with Sen. Bernie Sanders at 11 percent and the rest of the presidential hopefuls coming in with single-digit levels of support.


The poll was conducted September 14-18 via telephone with 602 registered Iowa voters who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democrat party caucuses.

The reported maximum margin of error is 4 percentage points, so Warren’s lead is tenuous.

What is more clear is that since the last CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll in June, Biden and Sanders have slipped, reaching new lows.

“This is the first major shakeup” in what had been a well-defined race,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “It’s the first time we’ve had someone other than Joe Biden at the top of the leader board.”

Poll results also indicate that the race is not close to being settled with just one in five people interviewed declaring their minds are made up, according to the Des Moines Register. Almost two-thirds say they could still be swayed to support a different candidate.

“The data in this poll seem to suggest the field is narrowing, but my sense is there’s still opportunity aplenty,” Selzer said. “The leaders aren’t all that strong. The universe is not locked in.”

The Register reported …

Today, the universe of people who say they are considering Warren in some way — 71% of likely Democratic caucusgoers — is larger than it is for any other candidate.

That includes 22% who say she is their first choice for president, 20% who say she is their second choice and another 29% who say they are actively considering her.

Trailing her are: Biden (60%), Buttigieg (55%), Harris (55%), Sanders (50%), Booker (42%), O’Rourke (38%) and Klobuchar (37%).

The 71 percent of caucusgoers considering Warren is a jump of 10 percent since June. So the momentum that is building for Warren is real, while the downward trends for Biden and Sanders indicate where her new support is coming from.

Biden’s struggles are literally visible as the liberal media deals with the growing challenge of hiding his long list of campaign-trail gaffes.

In December, when the first such poll was taken, Biden’s favorability was at 82 percent. The latest poll numbers have his favorable numbers at 66 percent. In that same period, his unfavorable numbers have almost doubled from 15 percent to 29 percent.

Sixty-three percent of those interviewed for the poll say defeating that beating President Trump is more important to them than finding alignment with their positions on major issues; 31% say it’s more important to find someone who shares their views on the issues.

Warren, Biden, and Sanders account for just over half of first-choice votes, totaling 53%. The remaining 47% will decide the race in the February 3, 2020 Iowa Dem caucuses.

“Those votes could start to coalesce around one of the also-rans and quite easily pop another candidate into double-digits as a contender,” Selzer said.

Video by CNN 



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