Nate Silver throws cold water on theory that Dems have got the House in the bag for 2018

Robert Donachie, DCNF

LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 15: Senator Hillary Clinton attends the LA Promise Fund's Girls Build Leadership Summit at Los Angeles Convention Center on December 15, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Araya Diaz/WireImage) — (Photo by Araya Diaz/WireImage)

FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver picked apart a theory that Democrats have already won the House majority in 2018, arguing Monday that many pollsters predicted former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would beat President Donald Trump in a landslide in 2016.

“Seems like people haven’t learned too much from 2016,” Silver tweeted Monday. “Democrats are modest favorites to win the House, but not particularly heavy ones; less than Clinton was in Nobember 2016, and that race was much more competitive than news accounts implied.”

Seems like people haven't learned too much from 2016.

Democrats are modest favorites to win the House, but not particularly heavy ones; less than Clinton was in Nobember 2016, and that race was much more competitive than news accounts implied. https://t.co/FcD8MPnjRs

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 5, 2018

Silver was referencing an article in Axios with the headline: “Democrats may have already won the House.”

Clinton was an outright favorite leading into Election Day 2016. Even as results started rolling in on election night, The New York Times had Clinton’s chances of winning at 85 percent.

The Times was not alone in its assessment. ABC, The Washington Post, NBC and RealClearPolitics all had Clinton defeating Trump leading into the final days of the election cycle.

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