Nate Silver: Trump improving in Ohio, Hillary slipping

Phillip Stucky, DCNF

Statistics site 538 adjusted its swing state forecast for Ohio Monday, and the results are looking good for Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Trump overcame a 5 point deficit mid-August to lead Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by three points in the state, according to the latest Ipsos poll published in September.

Based on the poll and voting demographics in the state, Nate Silver’s 538 gave Trump a 45.2 percent chance of winning, and reduced Clinton’s chances of 54.8 percent. Although the Democratic nominee’s chances are still greater than even, Clinton experienced a sharp decline over her 62.8 percent chance just last week.

Clinton is also struggling in the swing state of Virginia. Although the site still gives the Democrat an 82 percent chance of winning the state, Clinton fell in the polls, completely losing a 13 point lead. The two major party candidates are now even in the state, with Clinton only one point ahead.

Michigan and Maine are also in play, according to the polls. Trump now ties Clinton in both states at 42 percent. The site still awards Clinton a 75.4 percent chance of winning Maine, and a 77.4 percent chance of winning Michigan. Neither state has supported a Republican to this degree since 1988.

Clinton’s national chances continue to slide since her peak early August with a 79.5 percent chance. The site currently gives Clinton a 69.2 percent chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 30.8 percent chance. Trump had a 20 percent chance of winning at the beginning of August.

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