Nate Silver’s numbers for Trump radically shift after DNC

By Phillip Stucky, DCNF

Statistics website FiveThirtyEight significantly lowered Republican nominee Donald Trump’s chances of winning the general election Tuesday, from 58 percent to 34 percent.

The site, run by statistician Nate Silver, gave Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the general election just last week, following the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. Trump had the edge in several key battleground states, based on polling numbers over the weekend after the convention. The states included: Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton received a much higher bump after her party’s convention than Trump. Clinton’s bump ranged from three points to nine points, depending on the poll. A CBS battleground state poll taken in the days after the DNC, revealed Clinton regained her lead in some of the most important battleground states.

That poll led to a drastic turnaround in Silver’s prediction of the race.

Silver awarded Florida, Ohio, and Iowa to Clinton, which granted her a 66 percent chance of winning the general election. Trump’s chances then fell to 34 percent. The website rates Florida and Ohio as the states most likely to significantly affect the outcome of the general election, both states switched from Trump to Clinton in the course of the last week, according to 538.

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