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One of the first people to predict Donald Trump would become the Republican presidential nominee is now predicting the general election.
Norman Ornstein, of the American Enterprise Institute, told Vox on Friday that he began to taken Trump’s candidacy seriously about a year ago.
He believes Trump’s victory was a rebuke of Republican leadership.
“I believed that its leaders had generated an awful lot of the anger out there,” he told Vox. “And eventually, I combined that with the set of polls that we began to see that showed 60 to 70 percent support for outsiders and insurgents.”
He also predicted Ted Cruz would come in second because voters were angry at the party.
“When I began to look at who the outsider and insurgent candidates were, it just seemed to me that Trump and Cruz were the two most likely to emerge,” he said. “Because they both tapped into different elements of this anger out there.”
Unfortunately for Trump he doesn’t have a rosy a picture for the general election.
“I think if we’re laying the odds here, I still think it is more like 80/20 that he loses,” he told Vox. “There are a lot of reasons to think that he is not gonna be able to expand this message to a much larger group of people once you move beyond trying to impress a Republican Party audience.”
But don’t despair.
“I don’t discount it entirely,” he said. “And I think 20 percent sounds like not much, but is quite tangible.”
He said a financial collapse or terrorist attack could increase Trump’s odds.
Ornstein’s prediction falls in line with other prognosticators who see Trump’s chances of winning the general election at around 20 percent.
Among them CNN’s interactive prediction page in which users have given Trump a 19 percent chance of winning.
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