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If Donald Trump has a chance to reach the magic number of 1,237 delegates before the Republican convention, he’s going to need the lion’s share of California’s 172 delegates. He got good news on that front yesterday in the most recent California statewide poll by Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies. The results, reported to Politico, show Trump clearly in the catbird seat.
Trump leads the state with 41 percent support, followed by Ted Cruz at 23 percent and John Kasich at 21 percent. The interesting thing about this poll is the number of undecideds, a statistically significant 15 percent. However, even if all those choose someone else, it still wouldn’t be enough to stop Trump.
True, the billionaire isn’t as dominant in California as he was in New York, where he trounced the competition with over 60 percent of the vote in a three-way race, but it may not matter. California, like New York, awards a certain number to the winner (in this case 13), then three to the winners of each of its 53 congressional districts. New York, however, is a “trigger” state, where an over 50 percent finish in a congressional district “triggers” all three delegates for that district, but an under 50 percent finish means a delegate for the runner-up.
This obviously favored Trump because of his strong win there, but the fact that in California he need only win each congressional district by one point to get all three delegates also plays to his favor, especially since he leads in EVERY California congressional district. Cruz’s strongest performance is still a 7 point deficit in the Central Valley. Trump, on the other hand, polls at close to 50 percent in the southern California Inland Empire.
Of new registered Republicans, those who just registered this year, Trump polls at a strong 53 percent, lending credence to the argument that most new voters are coming in to vote Trump.
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