Conservative outside groups have poured millions of dollars into attack ads slamming vulnerable House Democrats – as much as $9.1 million during the last month alone, according to one estimate.
But that total may pale in comparison to what’s going to be spent over the next 25 days.
According to ad buy information provided to POLITICO by a source that tracks the buys—much of it confirmed by Democratic campaigns—more than a dozen GOP-friendly third party groups have already reserved or purchased at least $12 million in TV spots between Sept. 30 and Election Day.
The pain won’t be shared equally—a handful of junior Democrats in competitive races are slated to be on the receiving end of an ad bombardment that goes above and beyond the attacks faced by their colleagues.
Here is POLITICO’s list of the besieged incumbents who top the hit list, all of whom are scheduled to face at least $400,000 in hostile outside group ad spending between now and Nov. 2.
Central Florida appears to be ground zero for the outside group attacks, with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and 60 Plus Association set to spend at least $1.7 million by the end of next week battering Reps. Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson.
For conservative groups, the benefit of investing heavily in the central Florida races is clear. They offer more bang for the buck since two of the most endangered freshmen Democrats in Congress represent seats within the Orlando media market—Kosmas in the 24th District and Grayson in the neighboring 8th District.
“I know there are a lot of attractive seats out there, but these are two particularly attractive seats,” said Jason Roe, a GOP strategist who is working for Florida Republicans Dan Webster and Sandy Adams, who are trying to unseat Grayson and Kosmas. “It’s an attractive situation for the NRCC and outside groups because it’s one media market.”
There are other reasons to spend big in the in the Orlando area. Each contest features Republican challengers who emerged nearly broke from competitive and expensive August primaries and unable to spend on their own TV ads.
Adams, who is the GOP nominee against Kosmas, hasn’t aired any commercials yet. Webster, Grayson’s challenger, has run just one. Meanwhile, the well-funded Grayson has already launched a handful. Grayson raised more than $3 million for his own reelection campaign, the most impressive haul of any Democratic freshmen, and has yet to receive help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
While the Republican challengers have been absent from the air, the outside groups have picked up the slack. Kosmas and Grayson are individually targeted by $250,000 in ads from the Chamber, with Grayson already under fire by a Chamber spot that calls Grayson a “big mouth” and “extreme.”
And the Chamber and the 60 Plus Association have reserved a combined $1 million-plus in ads that slam Kosmas and Grayson together.
Even before the latest ad blitz, Grayson and Kosmas were softened with $230,000 in ads from the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“These [outside] ads have been lifesavers,” said Roe. “I have less anxiety and sleep a little better at night. If those ads weren’t there, I wouldn’t sleep as well knowing that we’re dark right now.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43309.html#ixzz11lRDS8bT
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The longest-tenured writer at BizPac Review, Tom grew up in Maryland before moving to Central Florida as a young teen. It is in the Sunshine State that he honed both his passion for politics and his writing skills.
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