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As the Republican National Convention gears up for its final night culminating in President Trump’s nomination acceptance speech, it seems last week’s Democratic event did not give nominee Joe Biden any real momentum.
The former vice president reportedly has not seen the typical — and hoped-for — shift in his polling numbers following the Democrat National Convention last week and his post-convention support seems to be slipping in some swing states, as FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver noted.
While the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Biden with an 8.4 point lead over Trump, that figure is well below the 9.3 lead just a few days prior. Hillary Clinton had a 5.7-point lead over Trump at this point in 2016.
Our model expected pretty small bounces this year, but still it sees this small a slight net negative for Biden, as it adjusts polls taken during what’s supposed to be Biden’s convention bounce slightly downward.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 26, 2020
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three states that were considered solidly Democratic until Clinton lost them in 2016, have showed a narrowing margin in Biden’s lead over Trump and an even smaller lead than Clinton held in 2016.
Second, Biden has gotten some not-so-spectacular swing state polls lately. His lead in Florida is down to +5.4 and in Pennsylvania to +5.8, which remain the most likely tipping-point states. Not bad, but the Electoral College – popular vote gap would appear to be widening a bit.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 26, 2020
Swing state polls on August 25th:
Pennsylvania
• 2016: Hillary +9.2
• 2020: Biden +5.7Michigan
• 2016: Hillary +9.0
• 2020: Biden +6.7Wisconsin
• 2016: Hillary +11.5
• 2020: Biden +6.5Florida
• 2016: Hillary +2.9
• 2020: Biden +4.8👉🏻 https://t.co/oJFSBQcvK3 https://t.co/7DibWSRCSb
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 25, 2020
Voters generally approved of Biden’s nomination acceptance speech last week, with about 7 in 10 in a CNBC/Change poll released Wednesday saying they had a favorable reaction. But while Trump is trailing Biden in some key swing states, there is a tightening in the margins.
NEW @ChangePolls/@CNBC Poll (8/21-23):
MICHIGAN
Biden 50% (+6)
Trump 44%
.
WISCONSIN
Biden 49% (+5)
Trump 44%
.
FLORIDA
Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 46%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 46%
.
ARIZONA
Biden 49% (+2)
Trump 47%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 47%— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 26, 2020
The poll of six battleground states that was taken immediately after the DNC also showed that Trump’s approval rating rose as Americans’ fears about the coronavirus pandemic fell.
According to the CNBC/Change Research poll, voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin gave Trump a 48% approval rating, up from 46% two weeks ago. This came as those who shared they had “very serious” concerns about COVID-19 was down to 45% from a previous 49%.
And in his highest number since the middle of May, 47% of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the pandemic.
Meanwhile, across the six states, Biden was leading Trump by a 49% to 46% margin.
So we’re at kind of a weird place where if you’re Biden, you neither have all that much reason to be worried (wouldn’t lose sleep over a bunch of Change/CNBC & Trafalgar polls) *or* all that much reason to feel secure (not a lot of great high-quality state polls for you lately).
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 26, 2020
But while Democrats tout Biden’s lead, however slight, and Trump’s challenge to beat him in swing states, Biden’s continued hiding out and avoidance of openly speaking out against ongoing rioting have taken a toll. Even CNN anchors let the cat out of the bag this week, admitting that the deadly violence in Kenosha and other cities since the death of George Floyd is taking a toll on polling.
Don Lemon says, out loud: Riots have to stop now because it’s ‘showing in the polling and focus groups’ https://t.co/fi8PxJulZf
— Conservative News (@BIZPACReview) August 26, 2020
“What you said was happening in Kenosha is a Rorschach test for the entire country. I think this is a blind spot for Democrats. I think Democrats are hoping this will go away, and it’s not going to go away,” Don Lemon told colleague Chris Cuomo.
“The rioting has to stop. Chris, as you know, and I know it’s showing up in the polling, it’s showing up in focus groups. It is the only thing right now that is sticking,” he added.
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Frieda@bizpacreview.com
Originally from New York, Powers graduated from New York University and eventually made her way to sunny South Florida where she has been writing for the BizPacReview team since 2015.
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