Though House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi remains convinced of a surefire Democrat victory come Tuesday, this year’s confusing election data suggests she may want to abstain from counting her chickens before they hatch.
“You look at the generic ballot: it has Democrats up 7-1/2 points, and Republicans traditionally over-perform it. You look at enthusiasm: Republicans and Democrats are about equally enthused right now. You look at party registration: there hasn’t been a drop-off in Republican party registration like you usually see in wave years,” he said.
“You just look at a number of factors that you expect to see in a wave year, and they don’t really line up. I don’t know exactly what’s going to happen, but something just seems off.”
Conservative radio show host Rush Limbaugh noted this discrepancy last month, pointing out that while generic data shows Democrats leading, local data shows otherwise: “If you go race by race, if you go into the states district by district, you don’t see this wave, you don’t see the evidence in the polling.”
Dovetailing back to the discussion Saturday, host Jesse Watters agreed with Trende’s assessment and added that the conflicting information resembles what Americans saw in 2016.
“It does seem off, because when you have everybody on the left — the media, the Democrats and even Colbert — saying it’s a lock, and then that’s what they did in 2016. And you’re thinking that if they were wrong in 2016, could they be wrong again?” he said.
Scott Rasmussen, the editor-at-large for Ballotpedia, disagreed with Watters’ 2016 comparison but conceded that the Democrats certainly don’t have this election in the bag.
“The 2016 challenge was the analysis. It wasn’t really the polling data. It’s everybody looked at it and said, ‘This can’t be right. There’s no way Donald Trump will end up close,'” he first said.
That’s incorrect. Polling data tracked by RealClearPolitics shows that nearly every pollster had predicted a victory for then-Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
“People have been expecting a blue wave for a very long time. As Sean mentioned, there are some indications that maybe things are a little tighter,” Rasmussen continued.
“What is missing from this entire discussion is a one- or two-point swing in the turnout in either direction could have a profound impact. If it swings one or two points toward the Republicans, they could keep the house. If it swings one or two points further in the Democrats’ favor, we could be looking at a majority.”
That’s true. Note that according to early-voting data published last week by NBC News, of the 24 million early-vote ballots completed by the end of October, 43 percent were completed by Republicans, while 41 percent were completed by Democrats.
Listen to Rasmussen’s analysis below:
Continuing the discussion, both Trende and Rasmussen appeared to agree that Republicans will at the very least keep the Senate and likely gain some seats as well. It’s unclear though if Watters’ dream of a 60-seat majority will materialize.
It’s also unclear whether Republicans will keep the House, though both Vice President Mike Pence and conservatives on social media are confident they will:
Mike Pence: GOP Will Keep Control of the House https://t.co/hSITWNUaKP
— ✝️ Ben Owen ???? (@hrkbenowen) November 4, 2018
Republicans keep the House and grow their majority in the Senate.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) October 30, 2018
You’re about to see a Red Tsunami that will leave liberals stunned and powerless. Senate GOP 60 Dems 40 and Republicans keep the House. pic.twitter.com/euNzjZnpoU
— Brian McDonald (@beachhome1) November 4, 2018
I can’t wait ! When President Trumps Republicans take over the house and the senate ! America will keep on winning ! President said we will be winners ! And he was right ! Let’s all thank. God and. President Trump !
— Bobby Bird (@bobbybi25178869) November 4, 2018
Voters have become empowered. When Republicans keep the House and Senate and Trump wins in 2020 Democrats and the Democratic leaders will be exposed for their lies,corruption and Crimes.This will be the will of the people.Empowerment is in the vote. Globalism is over. KAG
— Willys60USA (@WILLYS60USA) November 4, 2018
Republicans will pick up 5 Senate seats and keep the House.
— Deplorable Dolores (@deedee3003) November 4, 2018
What’s clear, according to Fox News’ Stuart Varney, is that if Republicans win, it’ll be a win for everyone.
“If the Republicans keep control of the house and extend their lead in the Senate, you’ll have more tax cuts, you’ll have more growth and the economy booms continues,” he said Saturday. “That’s what you’re gonna have.”
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