Famed statistician and political election predictor Nate Silver claims to have the number on who will be the Republican nominee for 2016.
Donald Trump fans might want to be on alert.
Silver successfully predicted presidential election outcomes in 49 states in 2008, and nailed the 2012 presidential results with 100 percent accuracy.
For the next GOP presidential primary, Silver is looking past obvious front-runner Trump to take the nomination, and has chosen a contender who has been steadily rising in the polls.
Silver posted his political forecast on Twitter Thursday:
Do I have this all figured out? http://t.co/CCainE3A9I pic.twitter.com/i2eLw4htBI
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 24, 2015
In his show, FiveThirtyEight, Silver said Marco Rubio benefits the most from Scott Walker leaving the race. “Yeah, Rubio seems to be the default answer,” Silver said. “They’re fairly similar ideologically. They each have some credibility with both the establishment and the grassroots — or at least, they were supposed to. And we’ve already seen reporting on how a number of ex-Walker staffers are defecting to Rubio.” Silver likened Rubio to a reality star who everyone knows will win, but enjoys the arduous show of watching him get there. Plenty of Twitter users agreed:
@NateSilver538 He’s the one w/ the best shot to win in Nov. – Young great orator, Latino and from a key swing state. Will the base see it? — Brooke Tunstall (@YesThatBrooke) September 24, 2015
@NateSilver538 I think you nailed it
— John Holtz (@presidentjlh) September 24, 2015
@NateSilver538 I think Nate is right. Rubio’s likeability numbers are a real BFD. In the general election would be even bigger BFD. — Jeff (@jeff_karr) September 24, 2015
@NateSilver538 totally Rubio, it’s bound to happen
— Blake Self (@ZippenPippen) September 24, 2015
Or is it? Even with Silver’s stellar record of predictions, not everyone is a believer. Trump fans especially are not giving Silver’s announcement any clout:
@NateSilver538 Rubio is an inexperienced lightweight who regularly makes policy mistakes. I respectfully disagree…. — Blaine Bershad (@BlaineBershad) September 24, 2015
@NateSilver538 Cruz could threaten him given Rubio’s Gang of Eight record
— Allahpundit (@allahpundit) September 24, 2015
@NateSilver538 Trump. I really do think so — Troels Trier (@troelstrier) September 24, 2015
@NateSilver538 You don’t think Trump is the Richard Hatch? pic.twitter.com/UixxsJQEj9
— Micheál Keane (@aexia) September 24, 2015
The guy does have a point.
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