What is going on in the GOP presidential primary? Really. Last week in California, Ron Paul won the straw poll by a huge margin; this week, Herman Cain won Florida’s straw poll by a huge margin. And if that is not confusing enough, now there are rumors that President Obama will withdraw and Hillary Clinton will be nominated by the Democrats. Lest you forget, as recently as last week, Hillary Clinton had a 65 percent approval rating. If Hillary were nominated by the Democrats, she would probably win, but Obama would lose to most Republicans in the GOP lineup today.
The economy continues to meander along. Since S&P downgraded U.S. Treasurys, interest rates have declined further, and bond prices have risen. Go figure! Europe is still a mess, and will undoubtedly be an even bigger mess tomorrow, next week, next month, next year.
Gold has been extremely volatile, dropping by over $300 an ounce, then rising Tuesday by about $75 an ounce. Gold’s volatility is primarily due to the minute-by-minute changes in fortune in Europe, so this precious metal is in deep trouble.
- The DJIA looks lower short term, followed by a major advance into year’s end, then a major decline.
- Gold looks much, much lower by year-end or somewhat later.
- Oil is still mostly in a trading range of $80 to $90.
- The dollar continues to look higher.
- Interest rates will probably fall short term, then rise significantly.
- Real estate pricing continues to fall in most markets.
- The economy still looks weak, but we may have a short-term year-end blip up.
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