Arnold’s Ramblings 2-15-2011


The Republicans are all excited about attempting to cut $100 billion a year from the budget; and President Obama is all excited about trying to cut $1.1 trillion over ten years. HELLO! The most current expectation of the 2011 fiscal year deficit is $1.65 trillion and that is still likely low. And President Obama projects a $1.5 trillion deficit for 2012.  What is $100 billion or $110 billion? Maybe 7%.

The CBO came out last week and stated that Obamacare will cost the economy 800,000 jobs. This is the same CBO that President Obama and the Democrats used to show that there would be a cost savings with Obamacare (which there would be if Medicare was cut by $500 billion over 10 years and doctors took a $250 billion cut in payments, which is what Obamacare was based upon). I still believe that the number of jobs lost will be closer to 2 million, but it is encouraging that the CBO has finally recognized this obvious fact.

Both the Republicans and the Democrats are posturing for their own respective political advantage. The real issue here is that our national debt is now well over $14 trillion. President Obama announced that the debt would be at or above $15 trillion by September 30, 2011, at the end of the fiscal year and be well over $21 trillion within five (5) years. At some time (soon) interest rates are going rise to “normal levels” and when that happens, if the average interest rate is say 6% of $21 trillion; that would be about $1.26 trillion. The entire income to the government now is about $2.3 to $2.4 trillion. So, within five years the interest expense will run over 50% of the federal income. Today it is less than 10%!

I have read with interest that Democrats lead by Anthony Weiner (D) of NY; want Justice Thomas to recuse himself from the Obamacare Supreme Court case because his wife opposes Obamacare. That is interesting. Did Justice Ginsberg recuse herself when any causes that her husbands supported came before the court? Justice Ginsberg only recused herself when her husband specifically represented the case. If Justice Ginsberg recused herself for every cause her husband was on record supporting or opposing; Justice Ginsberg would not have been able to decide too many cases.

The DJIA still looks higher, though Arnold still does not understand how or why.
Gold looks higher to at least $1500 the ounce.
Oil look higher to at least $100 a barrel.
The dollar should drop further before starting a major rise up.
Interest rates on the 30 year Treasury have settled back to just below 4.7%, but should continue rising.
Real estate pricing has no where to go but down.
The economy still does not look to me to be growing at 3%.

Disclaimer:  Arnold’s Ramblings Inc. and/or its writers, representatives, employees, shareholders, executives and affiliates may have a financial interest in any security recommended to readers or otherwise mentioned. Nobody associated with this website or Arnold’s Ramblings Inc. is a registered investment advisor. Everyone should review investment materials in detail and with due dilligence when possible, and should consult proper counsel prior to investing. All information and advice presented by Arnold’s Ramblings Inc. is believed to be accurate and reliable when posted, but cannot be guaranteed.

Copyright 2011 Arnold’s Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.


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Arnold Goldin
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