Republican Rick Scott has taken the lead over Democrat Alex Sink in Florida’s tight gubernatorial contest, according to a new Sunshine State News Poll.
Though Scott’s 44-42 advantage, with 14 percent still undecided, is within the margin of error, the Republican holds wider leads with voters most likely to cast ballots, the poll shows.
“Based on this poll, Scott has to be favored to win this,” said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted the sampling. “His margin is even better among ‘excellent’ voters, or those most likely to vote (a 3-point advantage), as well as among voters who voted in both the ’08 and ’06 general elections (a 4-point lead).
“Conversely, the race flips to Sink by 20 points among those whose chances of voting are only ‘good’ or ‘fair’ (42/22 margin), and a 9-point (48/39) Sink lead among ‘1x’ voters which are the sub-sample of those who only cast ballots in the ’08 presidential election but not the ’06 election,” Lee said.
The VSS survey is weighted toward the most likely voters. So-called “presidential-type” voters made up just 19 percent of the 1,003-voter sample conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 3.
“These (presidential-cycle voters) are the key to Sink if she can gin up turnout. No small task,” Lee said.
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